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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd