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During a lavish exclusive event at the Raffles establishment in central London this week, the great and the good from the remaining ranks of the Conservative party marked a major magazine's parliamentarian of the year awards.

Given the publication's stance still just about support the Conservatives, despite the party facing an existential crisis from Reform UK, it was unsurprising that much of the gossip during the upscale reception was about whether Kemi Badenoch’s job was at risk.

Leadership Tensions Emerge at Awards

One senior figure, who unsuccessfully ran, couldn’t resist a dig from the stage targeting the obvious aspirations of his shadow cabinet colleague, a key rival – who is Badenoch’s biggest threat.

“Do I seek her position? Will I make a move between her shoulder blades and steal the crown? No, of course I’m not,” the experienced politician informed the amused crowd as he opened the evening's proceedings.

Jenrick, who came second, has recently shifted sharply rightward to take on Nigel Farage, responded with humor. His own manoeuvres have been anything but subtle.

Deadline to Leadership Contest Starts

Earlier this year, a dissatisfied MP set up a countdown clock on social media showing remaining time before party regulations permit leadership bids. That period concludes on Sunday.

From then on, the Tory leader’s critics can formally request a leadership election. Revised guidelines established recently to increase the threshold, now demanding thirty percent of the party’s 119 MPs are now needed, previously just fifteen percent, establishing a tougher standard for potential challengers.

Possible Contenders and Support

But could any putative rivals – Jenrick foremost among them – persuade the 36 MPs required to start the process? Party sources reference previous nomination totals in the leadership contest: twenty-eight initially. “That’s your starting point,” they said.

There is no shortage of Conservative legislators ready to express their frustrations about Badenoch: her style, her decision-making, her ability to cut through. However, generally, they remain cautious about committing yet another act of political regicide at this time.

Respite and Election Concerns

Several party members further think the leader's conference address at the autumn party conference, announcing a policy of abolishing stamp duty on primary homes, secured her temporary relief.

“We might not be happy with the current leadership we will act cautiously about getting rid of her. Voters already perceive we fight like rats in a sack. We should avoid providing any more evidence of that,” one MP said.

This doesn't mean planning has ceased. “Kemi has until May. Upcoming council polls are going to be cataclysmic for us. Nobody is going to want to take over before that and bear responsibility. But afterwards, we must find a leader who can take us toward renewal,” a frontbench source commented.

Survey Figures and Public Opinion

The polls already suggest the leader has gained minimal ground among voters in the past twelve months and that she has fallen in personal approval. At -22 points, her standing is lower compared to her rival and Mel Stride (-21), according to Ipsos Mori.

Additional research also shows that the leader has persuaded only 12% of Britons she is ready for higher office. The outlook improves among Conservative voters, over half stating they approve of her performance in her role, with fewer than a third saying she should not lead into the national campaign.

Future Scenarios and Party Strategies

But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, there appears to be a consensus within parliamentary ranks that Badenoch will not be the one before the next national vote.

The key disagreement centers on timing to replace her in May and have a chance at stopping Reform’s momentum – or delay until nearer the election date if Reform falters, and voters could be more willing toward Conservative messages.

It is no secret that Jenrick thinks he is the right candidate. However, associates claim he has no plans to move now, and is among those who thinks they should wait until May.

Alternative Candidates and Strategies

There is also a theory that the party’s potential saviour from less expected less prominent figures (one junior minister Claire Coutinho gets mentioned) or among newer MPs without strong associations to previous governments.

Another former candidate, is also cited as a potentially unifying figure, remaining reserved. His allies say he sees no better option than current leadership, since a new leader immediately would face greater challenges.

However, if a contest were to be triggered, there would undoubtedly be those encourage his candidacy, and he may be persuadable another attempt. Several moderate legislators are already preparing a rearguard action to block the frontrunner from winning.

Rightward Movement and Electoral Considerations

A well-connected Tory warned how momentum favors right-wingers within and beyond the party, citing figures such as Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “Opportunity exists for Cleverly as he has the stature and the relationship with members, while others oppose Jenrick at any costs.”

“Quite a lot of minds are on the need for a pact or coalition with Reform at some stage. Recent parliamentary divisions regarding assisted suicide and decriminalising abortion generated significant ‘we need to kick the people who voted for those out the party’ and Reform’s private messaging is ‘you’ve got some Lib Dems you’d have to get rid of’. That tips things in Robert’s favour a bit.”

Yet another source noted: “Jenrick winning is not uncertain. A competitive race involving multiple candidates – Cleverly, Stride. The idea that the rightwing candidate consistently secure membership support is not necessarily the case.”