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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to take a strong approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "severe ramifications" in August in case Putin continued hindering ceasefire talks, he finally imposed substantial penalties on the Russian primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly hindered the Russian leader's ability to fund his war effort in the region.

Yet, through his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, that was drafted by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Aggression

This proposal would effectively benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while leaving the country's democratic system in peril. Despite strong statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", much of the initiative in reality compromise that same independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his corporate background, Trump seems to consider the war as a basic land disagreement, as if handing Russia a section of Ukrainian land will appease the president. Yet, Russia's war is not simply about dominating a charred region of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious desire to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the accountable government that Putin's growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While maintaining in position the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would require the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk region. In addition to favoring Russia with territory that its forces have been failed to seize in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this concession would make Ukraine's defensive positions severely compromised.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that are a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, leaving Putin a clear route to the capital should he subsequently opt to resume the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a action that would make future fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's plan imposes no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, the proposal declares: "All Nazi belief system and actions must be opposed and banned." As if to emphasize this point, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump places no condition that Putin risk his dictatorship by conducting elections in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent treaties in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of captured land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should we have confidence in Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external security guarantees. While the initiative warns of a "immediate unified military response" in case Russia renew its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the details vary from fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the security presence, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from replenishing his diminished forces, restocking, and attacking again.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "significant, planned, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a armed reaction. However in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary protection against future invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not