Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.