From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move
The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.
The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.
He is convinced that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.
Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
It is widely rejected the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.
Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.
It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. The international community may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.