Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the files were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.