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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.