Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
